Fact check California Republican Party ballot emails
1/6
“Republicans Are Setting the Pace in Early Ballot Returns”
Verdict: Misleading
What the four emails said
Each claim checked above comes from a ballot-return update the California Republican Party emailed to its list in October 2026, signed by the party’s data director. Here, in brief, is what each one argued and the numbers it gave. The party posts its live counts at data.cagop.org.
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“Republicans Are Setting the Pace in Early Ballot Returns”
Says Republicans are returning ballots about 11% faster than Democrats, measured against each party’s share of the ballots mailed, and calls it an encouraging start.
- Republicans: 24.1% of ballots mailed, 29.2% of ballots returned
- Democrats: 44.6% of ballots mailed, 48.5% of ballots returned
- 323,855 ballots returned of 20,651,356 mailed, in 50 reporting counties
Checked in 1. Setting the pace
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“Republicans are turning out at the highest rate of any party.”
Says a larger share of registered Republicans had voted than of Democrats or other voters, that Republicans were outperforming their share of registration, and that the edge held among Asian American, Black and white voters. Also says Republicans vote in person at a higher rate.
- Turnout: Republicans 5.4%, Democrats 4.7%, no party preference and others 3.0%
- Republicans: about 25% of active registered voters, 30% of ballots cast
- Republican vs. Democratic turnout: Asian American 5.2% vs. 4.2%, Black 3.9% vs. 3.1%, white 6.5% vs. 6.4%
- No figures for Latino voters
Checked in 2. By age and 3. Latino voters
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“Republican women are keeping pace too.”
Tracks the gender mix of returned ballots: men returned theirs first, and women, led by Democratic women, are catching up, which the email says is what happened in the June primary. Says Republicans still turn out at a higher rate but that the margin shrinks every day.
- Men’s share of ballots: 54.5% in the first week, 48.9% this week, 51.0% of all 1.69 million so far
- Democratic women: 57% of Democratic registrants; 49.8% of first-week Democratic ballots, 55.5% this week
- June primary, median days from mailing to return: Democratic women 36, Republicans 29 to 30
- Turnout: Republicans 8.6%, Democrats 7.9%; the Republican rate was 1.14 times the Democratic rate on Oct. 19, 1.11 on Oct. 20 and 1.09 on Oct. 21
- Ballots added since the previous update: Democrats 52.5%, Republicans 26.8%
Checked in 5. The shrinking edge and 6. The 36-day stat
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“One week from today is Election Day!”
Says the Democratic catch-up has stalled and Republicans still turn out at a higher rate, and credits in-person voting. Warns that most registered Republicans haven’t voted and that Democrats out-vote Republicans in every age group, then urges a final push.
- Turnout: Republicans 16.2%, Democrats 15.5%
- 571,959 more voters since the previous morning; nearly 1 in 4 voted in person, and a third of those were Republicans
- In-person turnout: Republicans 2.7%, Democrats 2.4%
- Yet to vote: 4.9 million registered Republicans and about 5 million no-party-preference voters
- About 6 in 10 Republican ballots come from voters 65 and older
Checked in 4. The lead and 5. The shrinking edge; quoted in 2. By age